Qatar’s economy is estimated to recover in 2021 by a rate ranging between 1.5 percent and 2.3 percent, the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) has said in a report released on Tuesday.
According to Qatar’s Economic Outlook Report 2021-2023 released by PSA, Qatar’s economy will recover further in 2022 at a rate of between 1.6 percent and 2.9 percent. Most of the growth will come from the recovery of non-oil activities during the same period with a growth rate ranging between 2.8 percent and 4.7 percent, the report said.
Economic sectors like manufacturing, building and construction, and services sectors, the most important of which are tourism-related activities will mainly lead the growth, the report said adding that the recovery of wholesale and retail trade, and transport activities will further support the growth in the non-oil sector.
The PSA report also reviewed the international consensus expectations for the Qatari economy that expects it to grow by more than 2 percent in 2021 and by more than 3.5 percent in 2022.
“As for the GDP for 2022, consensus forecasts anticipate it to achieve an average growth of 3.7 percent, with these forecasts ranging between a maximum of 4.5 percent and a minimum of 2.5 percent, with a standard deviation of 0.6 percentage points. Mostly, this growth is based on assumptions that many economic activities will increase as a result of hosting the FIFA World Cup towards the end of 2022,” it said.
As for predictions for 2022 and 2023, the report said, it has been broadly assumed that all economic activities will pick up, but a full return to normal may not be possible because the precautionary measures for travelling abroad or for internal movement, as well as the radical and plausibly long-term change in the lifestyle of the population, will continue to curb the level of aggregate demand for goods and services. This can be expected to continue until the population adapts to the new lifestyles, it said.
The nonhydrocarbon GDP data for the second and third quarters of 2021 witnessed a remarkable growth of 6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively compared to a decrease of 2 percent during the first quarter, mainly coming from the recovery of activities that were the most affected by COIVD measures.
“This growth means that the Qatari economy, in terms of non-hydrocarbon activities, recovered during the first three quarters of 2021 by more than 160 percent, from negative 4.7 percent during the first three quarters of 2020 to positive 2.9 percent during the same period of 2021,” it said.
With regard to the consensual forecasts of the current account of the balance of payments, the report said, there is near-unanimity that Qatar will achieve a surplus during 2021 and 2022 at a rate of 5.8 percent and 5.6 percent of GDP respectively.
The highest estimate for 2021 is about 9.8 percent of GDP according to Oxford Economics, whereas the lowest estimate is 1.7 percent as forecast by the World Bank.
However, the PSA, through utilising the available data of balance of payment up to the end of the third quarter of 2021, published by Qatar Central Bank, projects that the current account of the base scenario in 2021 will witness a surplus of more than 10.8 percent, then it will be followed by a surplus in 2022 and 2023 of more than 5.8 percent of GDP.